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Author Topic:   For all you Monkeys out there
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Message 19 of 31 (44606)
06-29-2003 10:26 AM
Reply to: Message 1 by Selectric III
06-02-2003 8:45 AM


quote:
Thomas Huxley ("Darwin's bulldog") is said to have come up with the most famous defense of the atheist belief that life was created by chance, not God. In a debate at Oxford, he is reported to have stated that if enough monkeys randomly pressed typewriter keys for a long enough time, sooner or later Psalm 23 would emerge.
Not all atheists use this argument, but it accurately represents the atheist belief that with enough time and enough solar systems, you'll get you, me, and Bach's cello suites.
This belief has always struck me as implausible. The argument that infinitely complex intelligence came about by itself, unguided by any intelligence, can only be deemed convincing by those who have a vested interest (intellectual, emotional, psychological) in atheism.
I doesn't seem to me that this is necessarily so.
It can be claimed on a purely mathematical basis :
If you throw up a number of coins, the chance that all heads will come up is remote, but it can happen once in a while.
If you add coins to the lot, the chance that all heads will come up is smaller still, but it still isn't impossible.
If you pursue this reasoning further, you can end up concluding that, sonner or later, whatever the number of coins you use, all heads MUST come up, provided you go on throwing your coins for long enough.
Does that make sense ?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1 by Selectric III, posted 06-02-2003 8:45 AM Selectric III has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 21 by NosyNed, posted 06-29-2003 12:11 PM You replied
 Message 22 by NosyNed, posted 06-29-2003 12:19 PM You have not replied

  
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Message 20 of 31 (44607)
06-29-2003 10:34 AM
Reply to: Message 8 by crashfrog
06-02-2003 12:11 PM


quote:
The part that bugs me is where the author equates "low probability" with "no probability". Any one person has a pretty low chance of winning the lottery. Yet, almost every day, somebody wins the lottery. How is this possible? It's possible because there's a big difference between a low probability and no probability - in fact, it's as big as the difference between something and nothing.
True. Where is gets a bit weird is when you consider the fact that, although there is a very low probability that *you* win the lottery, it is a *certainty* (unless other factors come in such as tornadoes and hurricanes) that it *will* be won.

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